The Gulf states are on the brink of taking decisive action against Iran, fueled by Donald Trump's encouragement, in response to Tehran's relentless and indiscriminate attacks across the region. This potential shift marks a departure from their neutral stance in the war against Iran, as the United Arab Emirates, at the forefront of the six-country Gulf Cooperation Council, advocates for Arab states to act in self-defense. The situation is particularly significant because it could mean the Gulf leaders are aligning with Israel, a move that would significantly impact the Middle East's future dynamics, potentially favoring Israel. The GCC foreign ministers' video meeting on Sunday, while not explicitly mentioning a plan, acknowledged the possibility of responding to Iranian attacks to safeguard regional security and stability. Iran's diplomatic efforts over the past two years, aimed at convincing Gulf states that Israel, not Iran, is the primary destabilizing force, have seemingly been undermined in a matter of days. Ali Larijani, Iran's secretary of the supreme national security council, justified Iran's tactics as a response to US forces based in the Gulf states, but this defense has lost traction as attacks on hotels, apartment blocks, and oil refineries have intensified, perceived as disproportionate. Iran's strategic objective appears to be to maximize economic disruption in the Gulf states, compelling them to plead for Trump to end a war initiated without their support. The attacks have been widespread, including an Iranian drone strike on Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery, an attack on an oil tanker off the coast of Muscat, and strikes on energy facilities in Qatar's industrial city of Ras Laffan. Qatar's former prime minister, Hamad bin Jassim bin Jaber al-Thani, emphasized the loss of Gulf sympathy and the sowing of doubts in future relations with GCC states due to Iran's actions. The resentment in the Gulf states is directed primarily towards Iran, with officials pointing out their commitments to Iran, which they have honored, prohibiting the US from using their bases or airspace to attack Iran. The Iranian military's response to a US attack, as hinted at by Iran, suggests a symbolic attack on a US airbase in Qatar during the 12-day war in June. However, the scale, speed, and breadth of the Iranian attacks have caught Arab leaders off guard, leading to the UAE's ambassador withdrawal from Tehran and claims of more attacks on its territory than on Israel. The UAE reported detecting and intercepting numerous ballistic missiles, drones, and cruise missiles, resulting in financial losses estimated at nearly $2 billion for the UAE. A joint statement from Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates condemned the targeting of civilians and non-engaged countries as reckless and destabilizing. The attacks have even led to a temporary suspension of the rift between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which had been at odds over commercial and political interests in Sudan and Yemen. Saudi authorities refuted a Washington Post report suggesting they covertly encouraged the US and Israel to attack Iran, a move that could create domestic challenges for the Saudi royal family, given their accusations of Israel's genocide in Gaza. The Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, acknowledged the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps' attack on a US facility in Oman, a country that has mediated nuclear talks, and argued that Iran's military command decentralization aimed to prevent command and control collapse if military headquarters were destroyed. The lack of public debate within Iran's hierarchy regarding the economic chaos and potential military reprisals from the Gulf states raises questions about the regime's survival strategy. Experts suggest that Iran's attacks on the Gulf countries are calculated, targeting them as soft spots compared to Israel, and these countries' reluctance to engage in a conflict that is not their own.
